VENUE INTELLIGENCE

TRESTLES 2026

The competitive architecture of the 2028 Olympic venue.
BY VORTEX ANALYST DESK // SEPTEMBER 23, 2026
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Did the 2026 CT at Trestles expose a goofy-foot advantage for the 2028 Olympics?
Everybody knows two goofy-footers won the 2026 event, but the underlying magnitude of the advantage is the real story. Trestles is a split peak that overwhelmingly served rights during this window. Traditional logic suggests that should favor a regular-footer’s forehand. Instead, the smaller goofy-foot cohort outpaced the regular-foot field in overall advancement.
But this was not a universal sweep. The data reveals a split reality: regular-footers led opening conversion, while goofy-footers led through higher meaningful-wave averages and finishing precision. This dossier maps exactly where stance created separation, where regular-footers answered, and which venue mechanics applied to everyone.
13,138 HUMAN-RECORDED DATA POINTS
Captured across 58 heats, 754 competition waves, and 1,602 maneuvers. No AI-estimated performance data.
2026 EVENT DATA ONLY
ALL INTELLIGENCE DERIVED EXCLUSIVELY FROM THE 58 HEATS OF THE 2026 EVENT WINDOW.
THE EVENT IN FOUR NUMBERS
61%
GOOFY-FOOT HEAT WIN RATE
Goofy-foot athletes advanced in 61.1% of their heat entries, compared with 45.3% for regular-foot athletes.
92.6%
GOOFY-FOOT COMPLETION
On qualifying established rides, goofy-footers completed the finishing maneuver 92.6% of the time, compared with 83.8% for regular-footers.
78%
ADVANCEMENT AFTER A 5.00+ OPENING
Athletes advanced after 18 of 23 heat-opening rides that scored 5.00 or higher.
2.25
FINISHING-MANEUVER SCORE GAP
On established rides, the typical score was 5.83 when the finishing maneuver was completed and 3.58 when it was missed.
EXPANDCOLLAPSE // VORTEX PERFORMANCE MATRIXVORTEX PERFORMANCE MATRIX
OPEN +CLOSE −
ATHLETE FIELD // 58 HEATS

VORTEX PERFORMANCE MATRIX

Every athlete is plotted by strike rate across meaningful waves and average heat total. Event champions are red. Use the division toggles and nationality filter to narrow the field, then choose a focus athlete—or select a dot—to highlight one surfer. The sortable exact-data table below contains the same athlete set.
FIELD
WINNER / FOCUS
DIVISION
NATIONALITY
FOCUS ATHLETE
36 ATHLETES
MEN // ALL
AVG HEAT TOTAL
20
15
10
5
0
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
STRIKE RATE (5.00+ RIDES // MEANINGFUL WAVES)
MEN // SELECTED ATHLETE
SELECT AN ATHLETE FROM THE CHART OR FOCUS MENU.
WOMEN // SELECTED ATHLETE
SELECT AN ATHLETE FROM THE CHART OR FOCUS MENU.
EXPANDCOLLAPSE // EXACT DATA // ATHLETE PERFORMANCE MATRIXATHLETE PERFORMANCE MATRIX
OPEN +CLOSE −
DIVISION
NATIONALITY
This table contains the same athletes shown in the matrix. The first five rows are shown below. Select any column heading to sort the cohort, or open the full cohort to see every athlete in the current division and nationality view.
Alan Cleland
2
6
3
50.0%
9.59
Alejo Muniz
1
4
2
50.0%
11.50
Barron Mamiya
1
9
2
22.2%
10.53
Callum Robson
3
11
5
45.5%
11.09
Cole Houshmand
4
20
13
65.0%
14.33
Connor O'Leary
1
2
1
50.0%
8.83
Crosby Colapinto
1
4
3
75.0%
12.40
Eli Hanneman
2
8
3
37.5%
11.07
Ethan Ewing
2
11
4
36.4%
12.18
Filipe Toledo
1
6
3
50.0%
14.43
Gabriel Medina
1
5
4
80.0%
11.83
George Pittar
1
4
2
50.0%
11.67
Griffin Colapinto
2
15
5
33.3%
12.77
Hayden Rodgers
1
5
1
20.0%
9.67
Italo Ferreira
2
15
6
40.0%
13.81
Jack Robinson
2
9
6
66.7%
11.41
Jake Marshall
3
13
6
46.2%
11.99
Joao Chianca
1
6
2
33.3%
11.77
Joel Vaughan
1
6
4
66.7%
11.26
Kanoa Igarashi
5
23
16
69.6%
14.81
Kauli Vaast
2
8
4
50.0%
11.59
Leonardo Fioravanti
1
5
0
0.0%
6.90
Liam O'Brien
2
8
5
62.5%
12.62
Luke Thompson
3
11
5
45.5%
11.65
Marco Mignot
3
14
8
57.1%
12.80
Mateus Herdy
4
28
9
32.1%
12.75
Matthew McGillivray
1
3
1
33.3%
9.34
Miguel Pupo
5
20
14
70.0%
14.64
Morgan Cibilic
1
1
0
0.0%
5.40
Oscar Berry
2
10
3
30.0%
12.28
Ramzi Boukhiam
1
5
4
80.0%
12.16
Rio Waida
1
4
3
75.0%
12.87
Samuel Pupo
1
6
2
33.3%
12.83
Seth Moniz
1
6
1
16.7%
10.13
Taj Lindblad
1
3
2
66.7%
11.27
Yago Dora
4
26
14
53.8%
12.61
Meaningful waves are observed performance attempts scored 1.00 or higher after excluding priority yields, blocks, repositions, victory laps, and unobservable waves. Average heat total is the athlete’s average top-two total across their event heats.
THE SIX-PART DOSSIER
PART 01
THE RESULT
THE 15.8% ADVANCEMENT GAP.
↓
PART 02
THE ARENA PARADOX
RIGHT-DOMINANT, NOT REGULAR-FOOT DECIDED.
↓
PART 03
WHERE GOOFY-FOOTERS SEPARATED
SCORING OUTPUT AND FINISHING PRECISION.
↓
PART 04
WHERE REGULAR-FOOTERS SEPARATED
THE OPENING EXCHANGE.
↓
PART 05
UNIVERSAL VENUE MECHANICS
THE LAWS OF GRAVITY AT TRESTLES.
↓
PART 06
THE 2028 READ
FIVE QUESTIONS THAT TURN THE EVENT INTO A READOUT.
↓
CORE DEFINITIONS
MEANINGFUL WAVE
VORTEX filters out sub-1.00 scraps, repositions, victory laps, and waves that could not be observed. What remains are the event’s meaningful waves.
FINISHING MANEUVER
The final major action opportunity on a wave.
PRESSURE LINE
VORTEX set this event’s pressure line at 5.00 because it was the baseline single-wave score that typically applied pressure toward a heat total.
STRIKE RATE
The percentage of an athlete’s meaningful waves that scored 5.00 or higher.
01

THE RESULT

THE 15.8% ADVANCEMENT GAP.
The top-line anomaly of the event was a 15.8 percentage-point gap in heat advancement. Goofy-foot athletes advanced in 22 of 36 heat entries (61.1%), compared with 34 of 75 for regular-foot athletes (45.3%).
15.8%
PERCENTAGE-POINT ADVANCEMENT GAP
Goofy-foot athletes advanced at a higher rate across the event.
HEAT-ENTRY ADVANCEMENT
REGULAR
45.3%
GOOFY
61.1%
Goofy-foot athletes advanced in 22 of 36 heat entries. Regular-foot athletes advanced in 34 of 75.
WHAT THIS MEANS
The baseline reality of the 2026 event is that the smaller goofy-foot field outperformed the larger regular-foot field in pure win rate.
EXPANDCOLLAPSE // VIEW THE PROOF // PART 01 EXACT DATAPART 01 EXACT DATA
OPEN +CLOSE −
STANCE
HEAT ENTRIES
ADVANCED
RATE
EVIDENCE STATUS
REGULAR
75
34
45.3%
DESCRIPTIVE // NO CLEAR SEPARATION
GOOFY
36
22
61.1%
DESCRIPTIVE // NO CLEAR SEPARATION
NOT INCLUDED
5
2
40.0%
SOURCE STANCE FIELD NOT POPULATED
Primary copy uses plain language. The table preserves the exact cohort labels and values used by the analysis.
02

THE ARENA PARADOX

RIGHT-DOMINANT, NOT REGULAR-FOOT DECIDED.
Among the 683 waves with a recorded direction, surfers rode 450 rights and 233 lefts. The typical scores were nearly identical at 4.00 and 4.07.
66%
OF WAVES WENT RIGHT
Surfers rode 450 rights and 233 lefts.
DIRECTIONAL IDENTITY
RIGHT
450
LEFT
233
Typical scores were nearly level: 4.00 on rights and 4.07 on lefts.
EVENT CASE // THE AMBIDEXTROUS EDGE
MIGUEL PUPO + ERIN BROOKS
Miguel Pupo and Erin Brooks both surf goofy-foot. Across their event victories, they combined for 18 counting rides: 11 on lefts and seven on rights.
18
COMBINED COUNTING RIDES
11 LEFT / 7 RIGHT
DIRECTION SPLIT
WHAT THIS MEANS
The right-heavy wave count did not automatically favor a regular-footer’s forehand. The event’s strongest profile was an ambidextrous goofy-footer capable of posting counting scores across the entire arena.
EXPANDCOLLAPSE // VIEW THE PROOF // PART 02 EXACT DATAPART 02 EXACT DATA
OPEN +CLOSE −
DIRECTION
RIDES
SHARE OF RECORDED
TYPICAL SCORE
RIGHT
450
65.9%
4.00
LEFT
233
34.1%
4.07
UNKNOWN
71
—
EXCLUDED FROM DIRECTION SPLIT
Primary copy uses plain language. The table preserves the exact cohort labels and values used by the analysis.
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03

WHERE GOOFY-FOOTERS SEPARATED

SCORING OUTPUT AND FINISHING PRECISION.
The goofy-foot advantage sharpened in wave-by-wave execution. Goofy-footers averaged 4.89 on meaningful waves, an 8.4% advantage over the regular-foot average of 4.51. They also produced a 7.00+ ride in 44.4% of their heat entries, compared with 37.3% for regular-footers.
STANCE DIFFERENCES
Goofy-footers led across scoring output, 7.00+ production, and finishing completion.
4.89
MEANINGFUL-WAVE AVERAGE
4.51 REGULAR
+8.4%
44.4%
HEAT ENTRIES WITH A 7.00+
37.3% REGULAR
+7.1 PTS
92.6%
FINISHING COMPLETION
83.8% REGULAR
+8.8 PTS
WHAT THIS MEANS
Once on a meaningful wave, goofy-footers scored higher on average, reached the 7.00+ threshold in more heat entries, and completed the finishing maneuver on 92.6% of qualifying established rides versus 83.8% for regular-footers.
EXPANDCOLLAPSE // VIEW THE PROOF // PART 03 EXACT DATAPART 03 EXACT DATA
OPEN +CLOSE −
MEASURE
GOOFY
REGULAR
OBSERVED GAP
EVIDENCE STATUS
MEANINGFUL-WAVE AVERAGE
4.89 // n=167
4.51 // n=352
+8.4%
DESCRIPTIVE // NO CLEAR SEPARATION
HEAT ENTRIES WITH ANY 7.00+
16/36 // 44.4%
28/75 // 37.3%
+7.1 POINTS
DESCRIPTIVE // NO CLEAR SEPARATION
FINISHING COMPLETION
87/94 // 92.6%
166/198 // 83.8%
+8.8 POINTS
DESCRIPTIVE // NO CLEAR SEPARATION
Primary copy uses plain language. The table preserves the exact cohort labels and values used by the analysis.
04

WHERE REGULAR-FOOTERS SEPARATED

THE OPENING EXCHANGE.
The goofy-foot advantage disappeared at the start of the heat. On the heat’s first ride, regular-footers converted 16 of 25 opportunities into a 5.00+ score (64%). Goofy-footers converted six of 12 (50%).
14%
PERCENTAGE-POINT OPENING EDGE
Regular-footers led the opening exchange.
HEAT’S OPENING RIDE → 5.00+
REGULAR
16 / 25
GOOFY
6 / 12
This is the heat’s first ride, not each athlete’s first ride.
WHAT THIS MEANS
Regular-footers held a 14-percentage-point edge in opening conversion. The goofy-foot advantage appeared later through scoring output and finishing precision.
EXPANDCOLLAPSE // VIEW THE PROOF // PART 04 EXACT DATAPART 04 EXACT DATA
OPEN +CLOSE −
STANCE
VERIFIED GLOBAL OPENINGS
5.00+
CONVERSION
EVIDENCE STATUS
REGULAR
25
16
64.0%
DESCRIPTIVE // NO CLEAR SEPARATION
GOOFY
12
6
50.0%
DESCRIPTIVE // NO CLEAR SEPARATION
NOT INCLUDED
2
1
50.0%
SOURCE STANCE FIELD NOT POPULATED
Primary copy uses plain language. The table preserves the exact cohort labels and values used by the analysis.
05

UNIVERSAL VENUE MECHANICS

THE LAWS OF GRAVITY AT TRESTLES.
Certain mechanics cut across stance. Clean surf expanded the canvas for completed maneuvers, but it did not raise the typical single-wave score. Scoring efficiency could outweigh wave volume.
SURFACE CONDITIONS
VORTEX tracks surface condition, wind, swell direction, swell period, tide, wave size, and opportunity frequency across every venue. Surface condition produced one of the clearest execution contrasts in this event: clean surf produced more completed work, but it did not raise the typical single-wave score.
CLEAN
82.6%
COMPLETION
2.88 MAJORS / WAVE
4.77 TYPICAL SCORE
TEXTURED
74.9%
COMPLETION
2.55 MAJORS / WAVE
4.83 TYPICAL SCORE
BUMPY
78.9%
COMPLETION
2.61 MAJORS / WAVE
4.83 TYPICAL SCORE
UNIVERSAL EVENT PRESSURE POINTS
These mechanics held across the event regardless of stance.
48.3%
RIDES AT 5.00+
262 OF 543 MEANINGFUL RIDES
94.7%
FIRST 7.00+ ADVANCEMENT
36 OF 38 ELIGIBLE HEATS
W3
PERMANENT LEAD
TYPICAL WINNER’S OWN RIDE
W5
FINAL KEEPER
TYPICAL WINNER’S OWN RIDE
2.25
FINISHING SCORE GAP
5.83 COMPLETE // 3.58 MISSED
56.9%
HEATS INSIDE THAT GAP
33 OF 58 HEATS
EVENT CASE // MIGUEL PUPO’S EFFICIENCY
THREE WAVES. 15.83 POINTS.
Miguel Pupo defeated Mateus Herdy 15.83 to 13.50 after riding only three waves to Herdy seven. The case shows how score conversion can outweigh wave volume.
3
PUPO WAVES
7
HERDY WAVES
WHAT THIS MEANS
The three-wave quarterfinal by Miguel Pupo made the point: score conversion can outweigh volume. Across the event, the 5.00 pressure line and finishing completion remained the clearest pressure points.
EXPANDCOLLAPSE // VIEW THE PROOF // PART 05 EXACT DATAPART 05 EXACT DATA
OPEN +CLOSE −
VENUE MECHANIC
EVENT VALUE
POPULATION
SURFACE // CLEAN
82.6% COMPLETION // 2.88 MAJORS/WAVE // 4.77 TYPICAL SCORE
9 HEATS
SURFACE // TEXTURED
74.9% COMPLETION // 2.55 MAJORS/WAVE // 4.83 TYPICAL SCORE
17 HEATS
SURFACE // BUMPY
78.9% COMPLETION // 2.61 MAJORS/WAVE // 4.83 TYPICAL SCORE
32 HEATS
5.00+ PRESSURE LINE
262/543 // 48.3%
MEANINGFUL WAVES
FIRST 7.00+ ADVANCEMENT
36/38 // 94.7%
HEATS WITH A 7.00+
PERMANENT LEAD
WINNER RIDE 3
58 HEATS
FINAL KEEPER
WINNER RIDE 5
58 HEATS
FINISHING SCORE ASSOCIATION
5.83 COMPLETE // 3.58 MISSED
QUALIFYING ESTABLISHED RIDES
HEATS WITHIN 2.25 POINTS
33/58 // 56.9%
COMPLETED HEATS
Primary copy uses plain language. The table preserves the exact cohort labels and values used by the analysis.
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06

THE 2028 READ

FIVE QUESTIONS THAT TURN THE EVENT INTO A READOUT.
The 2026 data exposes five competitive vectors that shaped heat control at Trestles during this event.
01
WHO CAN POST COUNTING SCORES ON BOTH SIDES OF THE SPLIT PEAK?
02
WHO CONVERTS THE HEAT’S OPENING RIDE INTO A 5.00+?
03
WHO POSTS THE FIRST 7.00+ SINGLE-WAVE SCORE?
04
WHO CONTROLS THE LEAD BY THE MIDDLE EXCHANGE WITHOUT RELYING ON EXCESSIVE VOLUME?
05
WHO COMPLETES THE FINISHING MANEUVER MOST CONSISTENTLY?
EXPANDCOLLAPSE // VIEW THE PROOF // PART 06 EXACT DATAPART 06 EXACT DATA
OPEN +CLOSE −
READ
OBSERVED EVENT SIGNAL
BOTH SIDES OF THE PEAK
18 CHAMPION COUNTING RIDES // 11 LEFT + 7 RIGHT
GLOBAL OPENING CONVERSION
18/23 ADVANCED AFTER A 5.00+ OPENING
FIRST 7.00+ LEVERAGE
36/38 ADVANCED
LEAD CONTROL
TYPICAL WINNER PERMANENT LEAD BY OWN RIDE 3
FINISHING COMPLETION
5.83 COMPLETE // 3.58 MISSED
Primary copy uses plain language. The table preserves the exact cohort labels and values used by the analysis.
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Arena geometry, conditions, opportunity supply, stance effects, and scoring thresholds.
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Repertoire, score conversion, pressure response, heat structure, and tactical tendencies.
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One opponent’s tendencies, pressure response, priority patterns, and venue fit.
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04 // DELIVERY SURFACE
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Two athletes evaluated inside the same venue, condition, stance, and tactical frame.
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GRANULAR TELEMETRY. ACTIONABLE READOUTS.
VORTEX is built on complex, high-resolution performance data, but elite intelligence should never cause analytical fatigue. We process thousands of granular variables into immediate, plain-language tactical directives. The engine is heavy. The story stays simple. The mathematical proof—the receipts—stay available.
“Typical score” is the median: the score in the middle after every result is placed in order. It is not the arithmetic average. The expandable proof tables retain exact labels, sample sizes, and rates. Scores belong to the whole ride. This page describes one event; it does not prove that one factor caused another or guarantee the same result in 2028.
EXPANDCOLLAPSE // METHODOLOGY + PROVENANCEMETHODOLOGY + PROVENANCE
OPEN +CLOSE −
STANCE COVERAGE // The source calculation includes 111 of 116 heat entries, 519 of 543 meaningful waves, and 292 of 305 qualifying established rides. Five heat-entry records did not contain a populated stance field and were not imputed in this calculation.
7.00+ HEAT-ENTRY PRODUCTION // At least one meaningful 7.00+ ride was recorded in 16 of 36 goofy-foot heat entries (44.4%) and 28 of 75 regular-foot heat entries (37.3%). The 7.1-point difference did not meet the analysis threshold for clear separation; two-sided Fisher exact p=0.536.
GLOBAL OPENING CONVERSION // The heat’s first meaningful ride reached 5.00+ in 16 of 25 regular-foot opportunities (64.0%) and six of 12 goofy-foot opportunities (50.0%). Nineteen heats lacked a qualifying opening under this definition. The 14-point difference did not meet the analysis threshold for clear separation; two-sided Fisher exact p=0.488.
PROVENANCE // The following SHA-256 values are tamper-evident artifact and provenance receipts. They establish artifact identity; they do not independently prove that every underlying observation is true.
REPAIR AUTHORITY // 3f4d9f7ddab0fb21a8467cdd999ee6eb071dea125d612ae704c5493c949a276a
CERTIFIED RECEIPT // 18508531457cd09b9dd0f54ad3d94f22523673116b1c54052b87e74a46e24e76
SEALED SNAPSHOT // 7ad25a95569cc747a82fdd11e08533f97c48a784dec9ae09afa0a15541f3f6ff
SOURCE // 58 HEATS · 754 WAVES · 1,602 MANEUVERS · 13,138 HUMAN-RECORDED DATA POINTS
VORTEX INTELLIGENCE, INC. // VENUE INTELLIGENCE